During the 1930s, long before the IMF, the British Empire coped with a debt crisis in a small country. This is a tale of the choice between debt and democracy.

Newfoundland became the first self-governing dominion of the empire in 1855, twelve years before Canada, forty-five years before Australia, and fifty years before South Africa. In the late 19th century, Newfoundland negotiated trade agreements with the United...

If the nuclear deal with Iran succeeds, the world will see a great shift in geopolitics and economic growth. Iran has reached an agreement with the United States and five other countries to curtail its nuclear development program in return for economic sanctions...

There is still a great deal of distrust on both sides, but the fact that both President Obama and President Rouhani want a deal suggests a breakthrough may be possible.

The big date looms and the consequences for geopolitics could be even bigger:on November 24, Iran and the United States and five other leading nations, if all goes well, are scheduled to hold a summit in Geneva to complete negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program...

The US is currently in the 60th month of economic expansion, and appears poised for a year of 3.0% output growth after a weather-driven downturn during the first quarter. The unemployment rate could drop below 6.0% in the near future, but the Federal Reserve will...

Economist David Hale, chairman of David Hale Global Economics, said in general he expects stronger growth in the countries that are members of the Pacific Alliance

If he were a weatherman, International Monetary Fund economist André Meier said his economic forecast for Latin America would be “cloudy with a chance of rain.” Just four years ago, average economic growth in Latin America was 6.5 percent and self-confidence also...

It’s worth asking why Britain has found recovery quite so hard, whether George Osborne or his predecessors are to blame, and whether growth is now finally returning.

The British economy has been in the doldrums for nearly 18 months. It has been the United Kingdom’s longest period of sluggish growth since the early 19th century and its performance has lagged behind all other G7 countries, except for Italy. There was relief at...

PREVIEW TO: SUMMER READING Interview by Jeffrey M. Cunningham Euroreality As the global economy continues to spin in unpredictable ways, economist David Hale, and his wife and writing partner, Lyric Hughes Hale, provide an update on their book, What’s Next:...

Fed’s Focus Remains on US Economy WED 06 JUN 12 | 06:30 PM ET David Hale, Chairman, David Hale Global Economics says the Fed is not going to make a decision this week based on Europe and that it remains focused on US...

The G-8 countries will be relieved that the US economy is regaining momentum at a time when Europe is confronting recession and China is showing signs of slowing down.

When the G-7 countries meet this spring, one issue they will discuss is the desynchronization of the global economy. The US economy is again the G-7 growth locomotive. It grew at a 3.0% annual rate during the fourth quarter and is likely to expand by 2.5-3.0%...

http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/05/08/emerging-markets-warrant-an-overweight-position-in-investor-portfolios-says-david-hale/

appeared on swissinfo.com: …But David Hale, an economist based in Chicago and veteran China watcher, said he saw “nothing new in this and (it) will continue so long as China remains an authoritarian...

Australian Broadcasting Corporation Broadcast: 27/04/2012 Reporter: Emma Alberici David Hale is an economic adviser to banks world-wide, and joins Lateline to discuss the apparent failure of austerity measures to save Europe. Interview and Transcript:...

http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/twt/201204/20120426twt6-brit-recession.mp3 KIM LANDERS: The British economy is officially back in recession and economists say there’s a long way to go before the economy is back on the front foot. The news has added to...

What’s Next?: Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy edited by David Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale. Yale University Press, 2011. The dismal science of economics has become even more dubious in recent years because the profession seems to have been...

There would be minimal risks for Scotland in pegging its new currency to the Norwegian krone.

One of the questions which Scotland will have to ponder if it regains independence is what to do with its currency. Scottish banks currently print their own banknotes, but they are British pounds subject to control by the Bank of England. They are not truly a...

http://finance.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/01/08/l’economie-mondiale-pourra-t-elle-eviter-la-recession-europeenne/

A New Way Forward Published October 2011 What’s Next? by David Hale http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/newsdesk/cannes/index.html

[Forecasters] fear that wealth losses in the equity market and the shock to business confidence could overwhelm the traditional factors driving the business cycle.

The turbulence in equity markets has stoked great concern about the outlook for the US and global economies. Many forecasters are slashing estimates of second half growth to 1 per cent. Some even fear there could be a recession. However, there have been steep...

September 15, 2011 By: Worldview The European Union is in crisis, with many debating whether Greece, with its crippling level of debt, should even remain in the EU. In the United States, new figures from the Census Bureau reveal that nearly one in six people was...

There is little doubt that the US will need a prolonged period of fiscal austerity in order to reduce its structural budget deficit.

There is a risk that fiscal policy could significantly retard the growth rate of the US economy next year. Congressional Republicans and the White House are now locked in negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling. The Republicans are demanding large...

The White House and Congress must restore confidence by taking action to reverse the fiscal drag projected in 2012 while offering a credible plan for deficit reduction.

The sharp gyrations in US equity markets have provoked new concerns that the US economy could experience a double dip. There is not a direct correlation between the equity market and the economy. The stock market fell 36% during 1987 and real GDP grew by 4.1%...

The persistence of the deficit and the large declines now occurring in federal aid will force the state to keep tight control on spending for another two years.

Following three years of expansionary practices, fiscal policy could significantly retard the already slow growth rate of the U.S. economy next year. Congressional Republicans and the White House are negotiating to raise the federal debt ceiling, with Republicans...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000031884

If the structural changes now occurring in wages and the cost of capital dampen profits and investment, they could also gradually reduce China’s potential growth rate.

China is now embarking upon a new five year plan designed to alter the economy’s growth mix and how it interacts with the rest of the world. The government says it wants to focus upon the quality of growth rather than just maximizing it. It wants to reduce the...

David Hale, Chairman and Founder of David Hale Global Economics talks about America’s economic health. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=2033211358

In their new book, What’s Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy, experts David Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale offer rare insight from a select group of the world’s best thinkers. What’s Next? explores how human decisions – including social...

Despite upbeat forecasts from economists, the road to recovery remains paved with formidable challenges, including stubbornly high unemployment and weak demand for housing. The stabilization of the financial system contributed to economic recovery in late 2009...

If employment growth does not revive, the recovery will falter again and require policy makers to keep applying monetary and fiscal stimulus.

There has been a surge of optimism among US forecasters since December. It has been driven by the White House-Congressional compromise on tax policy and evidence of strong retail sales during the Christmas season. The new consensus forecast is calling for 3.5%...

There is no way to predict the timing of China’s future gold purchases, but there can be little doubt they will create a demand for gold that will dwarf all other factors

The recent gold price rally is the first stage of a multi-year bull market that will drive the gold price to at least $2,000 per ounce by 2015. A mixture of economic factors and innovations in how institutions can purchase the metal have moved prices. But the...

There is one currency which is likely to rally against the dollar—the Chinese renminbi.

The business cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research will probably say that the great recession of 2008-2009 ended last July. The US economy had a growth rate of 2.2% during the third quarter of 2009. Preliminary data suggests that it...

If the 20th century was America’s, the 21st may well be China’s. A trade giant, formidable economic power, and rising military power with increasing influence in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, China owns the largest foreign portion of U.S. debt at...

These productivity differentials mean that US business will enter the new year 10-15 per cent more competitive against Europe and Japan than it was a year ago.

The stock market has enjoyed a healthy rally since March because of rising unemployment. The horror of high unemployment has bolstered equities because of its impact on corporate profits. The US corporate sector has slashed costs during the past year by...

U.S. employment had declined at a much faster rate than national output (6 percent versus 3.8 percent) since the Great Recession began.

NEW YORK — When two Northwest Airlines pilots get so into their laptops that they overshoot their destination by 150 miles, breezing past Minneapolis like they’d never heard of the place, American self-absorption has clearly reached new heights. No longer just...

When this mining boom gets going 12 to 18 months from now, you want to have this fiscal deficit back to zero.

WELL-CONNECTED global economist David Hale has warned that the Rudd government needs to eliminate its huge budget deficit much quicker than scheduled or risk a massive balance of payments deficit blowout. “When this mining boom gets going 12 to 18 months from...

Traders use the Aussie as a proxy for China," he told the business audience. "It's no longer about the Australian economy"

AS THE RESERVE BANK SEES IT: Outbound tourism up 17 per cent since January Australian dollar the world’s strongest currency this year Resource exports back on track Inflation to ease GDP “speed limit” lifted Interest rate increases “gradual” Australians are...

Chile is a good example for Australia to follow. Chile's finance minister had to fight off others who wanted to spend the money immediately.

Joel Fitzgibbon and his staff were commiserating over drinks in their final moments in his ministerial suite. During a lull in the conversation, Fitzgibbon asked his staff a vital question that he had not dared ask while he was still minister. The Rudd Government...

Mr Hale said he was amazed at how weak the export lobby was in Australia. ''They are not being heard,'' he said.

AUSTRALIANS are leaving the country as never before. The soaring Aussie dollar and low international air fares pushed the number of Australians taking holidays overseas above 600,000 in September with the number leaving in the past year hitting a record 6...

The best guarantee for maintaining low inflation after the current recession is for the Obama administration to protect the independence of the Federal Reserve.

The US financial markets are haunted by ghosts. Many are alarmed at the prospect that the Federal Reserve’s highly accommodative monetary policies could revive inflation. Prominent economists, including Alan Greenspan, Martin Feldstein, and Arthur Laffer, have...

The second factor driving the equity market has been the success of the US corporate sector in slashing costs to protect profits.

The US stock market has enjoyed one of the most dramatic rallies of the 20th century since March. It has modestly outperformed the rallies which followed the 1974-75 and 1981-82 recessions. It is far behind the 120% rally which followed Roosevelt’s bank closure...

We are in the midst of a sustained downturn caused by a credit crisis...(which) has broad consequences for the entire US economy, and by extension, the global economy.

STOP the insanity. So pleaded leading banking analyst Glenn Schorr, of UBS, in an extraordinary email to clients on Wednesday. The plea pretty well summed up the mood from Wall Street to Main Street in the most harrowing week for the US financial system in living...

Basically for the first time in a long time I can begin my speech by saying we have some good news.

Burlington, Vermont – August 3, 2009 “Basically for the first time in a long time I can begin my speech by saying we have some good news,” economist David Hale said. The nationally known economist returned to his home state with uplifting economic news: Housing...

If Canada's provinces can now follow the prime minister's suggestion to formally open their procurement markets, NAFTA will ensure that the U.S. market is open to Canada.

The U.S. stimulus program includes a “Buy America” provision encouraging local governments to purchase materials and use contractors based in the U.S. It is difficult to imagine the United States and Canada having a trade war after signing a free trade deal in...

The Obama administration will have to protect the dollar's global reserve currency role in order to fund its deficits.

The global role of the dollar has been a controversial issue since the 1960’s. French President Charles de Gaulle described it as an “exorbitant privilege,” and tried to undermine it by having his central bank swap dollars for gold. The suggestion in late March...

China would prefer a slow and steady revaluation. However, U.S. political pressure, rather than economic good sense, will cause an accelerated appreciation trend.

The Chinese yuan reached a record high against the dollar last week, the latest in a series of sharp rises that are changing the dynamics of manufacturing in China – cutting already thin margins for some small-business owners. Unpegged from the U.S. dollar in...

It is essential that President Barack Obama use the [G-20 Summit] to articulate clear goals and bolster global confidence in his leadership.

The G20 summit in London is the most important to occur in that city since the global economic conference of June 1933. US president Franklin Roosevelt torpedoed the 1933 conference when he decided to pursue a unilateral devaluation of the dollar rather than...

The US has a greater responsibility than other countries to pursue intelligent responses to the current global economic trauma.

The upcoming G-20 summit in London will be the most important to occur in that city since the global economic conference of June 1933. The 1933 summit ended in disarray when President Franklin Roosevelt rejected proposals from the other industrial countries to...

Precious metals could emerge as a hedge for investors suspicious of central banks

The great challenge confronting the foreign exchange market at the start of 2009 is finding a good alternative to the US dollar. One of the ironies of market events during 2008 was that the US financial crisis produced a flight to safety in the dollar. The dollar...

If Canada's provinces can now follow the PM's suggestion to formally open their procurement markets, NAFTA will ensure that the U.S. market is open to Canadian firms.

It is difficult to imagine the United States and Canada having a trade war after signing a free trade deal in 1988 that was later broadened under NAFTA to include Mexico. Yet the rhetoric around trade on both sides of the border has been heating up. California...

The clear alternative to the dollar in 2009 is not other currencies but that ancient form of money: gold.

The great challenge confronting the foreign exchange market at the start of 2009 is finding a good alternative to the US dollar. One of the ironies of market events during 2008 was that the US financial crisis produced a flight to safety in the dollar. The dollar...

Economist David Hale explained why East Asia had to come to the rescue of the United States.

It seems that John Key is to get a pull-aside ( a 10-minute discussion) with George W Bush at the Apec summit in the next two days as well as having breakfast with China’s President, Hu Jintao. John Key told reporters he was called this morning by Secretary of...

There can be little doubt that the most enduring legacy of Mr. Hank Paulson's tenure as Treasury Secretary will be a landslide electoral victory for Senator Barack Obama.

There can be little doubt that the most enduring legacy of Mr. Hank Paulson’s tenure as Treasury Secretary will be a landslide electoral victory for Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) in November. Mr. Paulson’s decision to nationalize Fannie Mae without any shareholder...

[David Hale] expected this year to be the "worst Christmas in 25 years".

THE global economic slowdown may curb demand for Chinese exports, but strong domestic growth means the country’s thirst for Australian resources will continue, according to a leading economist. A day after new data indicated growth in China had slowed to...

My bet is that turbulence in Chinese equity markets will continue in the near term, particularly because of the backdrop of global financial instability.

As the United States slides into what promises to be a sustained period of slow growth or worse, China’s economy continues to expand at the rate of about 10 percent per year. Investors from abroad, facing diminishing returns in their own countries, want to know...

The most important factor shaping Mr. Bernanke's monetary policy is his great knowledge of economic history.

Ben Bernanke has presided over more dramatic changes in US monetary policy than any other central bank governor of the modern era. As a result of the collapse in the US housing market and over $500 billion of loan losses at banks, he has slashed the Fed’s core...

It increasingly appears that China will emerge as a winner from the current economic crisis.

China and the Global Economy By David Hale It increasingly appears that China will emerge as a winner from the current economic crisis. China is taking effective action to protect her economy from the slump in global trade. China is also taking advantage of the...

The mayor should not schedule any international business trips until he meets with the Illinois Democrats in Congress to ask them to change their views on trade policy.

The large increase in the oil price will continue to provoke debate about the character of the oil market and the potential for price manipulation.

There has been a great debate raging in Washington during recent weeks about the role of speculators in driving up the prices of oil, corn, wheat and other commodities. It has been alleged that the rise of hedge funds and commodity index funds has created a large...

Rudd friend David Hale, who gave a gloomy forecast on the US economic outlook but said all was not lost for the rest of the world, including Australia.

Like Greg Clarke, Michael Evans is a man of manners. IT’S considered a sign of good manners to put things back as you found them when you have finished with them. So it’s good to see Greg Clarke of Lend Lease doing some tidying up. Clarke was brought in by Lend...

Ben Bernanke, might have bailed out the banking system in March, he was also the first Fed chief to do so while losing control of the US dollar and commodity prices.

SUDDENLY everyone is calling it the Perfect Storm. From the futures traders in Chicago to the economists at Stanford University – even TV talkshow hosts – it’s the term of the moment. And they’re not just talking about the flooding crisis in the Midwest of...

The main reason commodity prices have been so resilient is the changing composition of global output. Developing countries have become the world's dominant growth leaders

Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, produced a brief dollar rally by expressing concern that a falling exchange rate could bolster inflation. Mr Bernanke is correct to be concerned about a weak dollar because it is part of a larger pattern of price...

If the Congress does not want to rescue the US banks during 2009, it must stabilize the housing market during 2008.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has presided over more dramatic changes in US monetary policy than any other Fed chairman during the second half of the 20th century. But what may most distinguish Mr. Bernanke from his predecessors is the unique global...

The devastation he has inflicted on his country is so great that every action must be taken to end his rule as quickly as possible.

The economic crisis now gripping the African country of Zimbabwe has to rank among the most extreme in the 20th century. The country’s real GDP has contracted by over 50% since 2000. Zimbabwe is now experiencing the 32nd hyperinflation to occur since the early...