If the nuclear deal with Iran succeeds, the world will see a great shift in geopolitics and economic growth. Iran has reached an agreement with the United States and five other countries to curtail its nuclear development program in return for economic sanctions...

There is still a great deal of distrust on both sides, but the fact that both President Obama and President Rouhani want a deal suggests a breakthrough may be possible.

The big date looms and the consequences for geopolitics could be even bigger:on November 24, Iran and the United States and five other leading nations, if all goes well, are scheduled to hold a summit in Geneva to complete negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program...

The US is currently in the 60th month of economic expansion, and appears poised for a year of 3.0% output growth after a weather-driven downturn during the first quarter. The unemployment rate could drop below 6.0% in the near future, but the Federal Reserve will...

Economist David Hale, chairman of David Hale Global Economics, said in general he expects stronger growth in the countries that are members of the Pacific Alliance

If he were a weatherman, International Monetary Fund economist André Meier said his economic forecast for Latin America would be “cloudy with a chance of rain.” Just four years ago, average economic growth in Latin America was 6.5 percent and self-confidence also...

Screen Shot 2014-06-25 at 11.08.13 AM

Mining Indaba 2014_ David Hale’s Perspective on Mining Indaba Conference - Thumb 6

It’s worth asking why Britain has found recovery quite so hard, whether George Osborne or his predecessors are to blame, and whether growth is now finally returning.

The British economy has been in the doldrums for nearly 18 months. It has been the United Kingdom’s longest period of sluggish growth since the early 19th century and its performance has lagged behind all other G7 countries, except for Italy. There was relief at...

David Hale Discuses U.S. Fiscal Cliff - Thumb 11

David Hale joins Lateline - Thumb 23

PREVIEW TO: SUMMER READING Interview by Jeffrey M. Cunningham Euroreality As the global economy continues to spin in unpredictable ways, economist David Hale, and his wife and writing partner, Lyric Hughes Hale, provide an update on their book, What’s Next:...

Fed’s Focus Remains on US Economy WED 06 JUN 12 | 06:30 PM ET David Hale, Chairman, David Hale Global Economics says the Fed is not going to make a decision this week based on Europe and that it remains focused on US...

The G-8 countries will be relieved that the US economy is regaining momentum at a time when Europe is confronting recession and China is showing signs of slowing down.

When the G-7 countries meet this spring, one issue they will discuss is the desynchronization of the global economy. The US economy is again the G-7 growth locomotive. It grew at a 3.0% annual rate during the fourth quarter and is likely to expand by 2.5-3.0%...

http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/05/08/emerging-markets-warrant-an-overweight-position-in-investor-portfolios-says-david-hale/

appeared on swissinfo.com: …But David Hale, an economist based in Chicago and veteran China watcher, said he saw “nothing new in this and (it) will continue so long as China remains an authoritarian...

Australian Broadcasting Corporation Broadcast: 27/04/2012 Reporter: Emma Alberici David Hale is an economic adviser to banks world-wide, and joins Lateline to discuss the apparent failure of austerity measures to save Europe. Interview and Transcript:...

http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/twt/201204/20120426twt6-brit-recession.mp3 KIM LANDERS: The British economy is officially back in recession and economists say there’s a long way to go before the economy is back on the front foot. The news has added to...

What’s Next?: Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy edited by David Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale. Yale University Press, 2011. The dismal science of economics has become even more dubious in recent years because the profession seems to have been...

There would be minimal risks for Scotland in pegging its new currency to the Norwegian krone.

One of the questions which Scotland will have to ponder if it regains independence is what to do with its currency. Scottish banks currently print their own banknotes, but they are British pounds subject to control by the Bank of England. They are not truly a...

http://finance.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/01/08/l’economie-mondiale-pourra-t-elle-eviter-la-recession-europeenne/

A New Way Forward Published October 2011 What’s Next? by David Hale http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/newsdesk/cannes/index.html

[Forecasters] fear that wealth losses in the equity market and the shock to business confidence could overwhelm the traditional factors driving the business cycle.

The turbulence in equity markets has stoked great concern about the outlook for the US and global economies. Many forecasters are slashing estimates of second half growth to 1 per cent. Some even fear there could be a recession. However, there have been steep...

September 15, 2011 By: Worldview The European Union is in crisis, with many debating whether Greece, with its crippling level of debt, should even remain in the EU. In the United States, new figures from the Census Bureau reveal that nearly one in six people was...

There is little doubt that the US will need a prolonged period of fiscal austerity in order to reduce its structural budget deficit.

There is a risk that fiscal policy could significantly retard the growth rate of the US economy next year. Congressional Republicans and the White House are now locked in negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling. The Republicans are demanding large...

The White House and Congress must restore confidence by taking action to reverse the fiscal drag projected in 2012 while offering a credible plan for deficit reduction.

The sharp gyrations in US equity markets have provoked new concerns that the US economy could experience a double dip. There is not a direct correlation between the equity market and the economy. The stock market fell 36% during 1987 and real GDP grew by 4.1%...

The persistence of the deficit and the large declines now occurring in federal aid will force the state to keep tight control on spending for another two years.

Following three years of expansionary practices, fiscal policy could significantly retard the already slow growth rate of the U.S. economy next year. Congressional Republicans and the White House are negotiating to raise the federal debt ceiling, with Republicans...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000031884

If the structural changes now occurring in wages and the cost of capital dampen profits and investment, they could also gradually reduce China’s potential growth rate.

China is now embarking upon a new five year plan designed to alter the economy’s growth mix and how it interacts with the rest of the world. The government says it wants to focus upon the quality of growth rather than just maximizing it. It wants to reduce the...

David Hale, Chairman and Founder of David Hale Global Economics talks about America’s economic health. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=2033211358

In their new book, What’s Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy, experts David Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale offer rare insight from a select group of the world’s best thinkers. What’s Next? explores how human decisions – including social...

David Hale on Economic Headwinds in 2011 - Thumb 11

David Hale- Where the World Economy is Heading - Thumb 4

Despite upbeat forecasts from economists, the road to recovery remains paved with formidable challenges, including stubbornly high unemployment and weak demand for housing. The stabilization of the financial system contributed to economic recovery in late 2009...

If employment growth does not revive, the recovery will falter again and require policy makers to keep applying monetary and fiscal stimulus.

There has been a surge of optimism among US forecasters since December. It has been driven by the White House-Congressional compromise on tax policy and evidence of strong retail sales during the Christmas season. The new consensus forecast is calling for 3.5%...

There is no way to predict the timing of China’s future gold purchases, but there can be little doubt they will create a demand for gold that will dwarf all other factors

The recent gold price rally is the first stage of a multi-year bull market that will drive the gold price to at least $2,000 per ounce by 2015. A mixture of economic factors and innovations in how institutions can purchase the metal have moved prices. But the...

There is one currency which is likely to rally against the dollar—the Chinese renminbi.

The business cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research will probably say that the great recession of 2008-2009 ended last July. The US economy had a growth rate of 2.2% during the third quarter of 2009. Preliminary data suggests that it...