The Newfoundland Lesson
During the 1930s, long before the IMF, the British Empire coped with a debt crisis in a small country. This is a tale of the choice between debt and democracy.
Newfoundland became the first self-governing dominion of the empire in 1855, twelve years before Canada, forty-five years before Australia, and fifty years before South Africa. In the late 19th century, Newfoundland negotiated trade agreements with the United...
Will Iran Become a Successful Emerging Market?
If the nuclear deal with Iran succeeds, the world will see a great shift in geopolitics and economic growth. Iran has reached an agreement with the United States and five other countries to curtail its nuclear development program in return for economic sanctions...
Why an Iran Deal Is Like a $400-Billion Tax Cut
There is still a great deal of distrust on both sides, but the fact that both President Obama and President Rouhani want a deal suggests a breakthrough may be possible.
The big date looms and the consequences for geopolitics could be even bigger:on November 24, Iran and the United States and five other leading nations, if all goes well, are scheduled to hold a summit in Geneva to complete negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program...
From Crisis to Recovery: The New Era of Slow Growth & What This Means for Investors
The US is currently in the 60th month of economic expansion, and appears poised for a year of 3.0% output growth after a weather-driven downturn during the first quarter. The unemployment rate could drop below 6.0% in the near future, but the Federal Reserve will...
Global Monetary Policy—Tapering Here and Abroad
Low-Gear Growth Predicted for Latin America
Economist David Hale, chairman of David Hale Global Economics, said in general he expects stronger growth in the countries that are members of the Pacific Alliance
If he were a weatherman, International Monetary Fund economist André Meier said his economic forecast for Latin America would be “cloudy with a chance of rain.” Just four years ago, average economic growth in Latin America was 6.5 percent and self-confidence also...
The 2014 Global Economic Outlook: The Goldilocks Scenario Is Still Intact
28th Annual Economic Forecast, Featuring David Hale, International Economist
Geopolitical Tensions and the World Economy at World Economic Roundtable
Future of Asia and Africa: Unconventional Wisdom
China's New Dream: How will Australia and the World Cope with the Re-emergence of China as a Great Power
Keynote Panel: The Current Status and Future Outlook for African Mining
The Global View
Re-igniting the Global Economy: Leadership Imperatives
Has Growth Returned?
It’s worth asking why Britain has found recovery quite so hard, whether George Osborne or his predecessors are to blame, and whether growth is now finally returning.
The British economy has been in the doldrums for nearly 18 months. It has been the United Kingdom’s longest period of sluggish growth since the early 19th century and its performance has lagged behind all other G7 countries, except for Italy. There was relief at...
The Global Economic Outlook: When Will Certainty Return?
What's Next? Reviewed by Jeffrey M. Cunningham, Directorship Magazine
PREVIEW TO: SUMMER READING Interview by Jeffrey M. Cunningham Euroreality As the global economy continues to spin in unpredictable ways, economist David Hale, and his wife and writing partner, Lyric Hughes Hale, provide an update on their book, What’s Next:...
CNBC ASIA: David Hale - Fed's Focus Remains on US Economy
Fed’s Focus Remains on US Economy WED 06 JUN 12 | 06:30 PM ET David Hale, Chairman, David Hale Global Economics says the Fed is not going to make a decision this week based on Europe and that it remains focused on US...
America Forges Ahead in the New Global Economy
The G-8 countries will be relieved that the US economy is regaining momentum at a time when Europe is confronting recession and China is showing signs of slowing down.
When the G-7 countries meet this spring, one issue they will discuss is the desynchronization of the global economy. The US economy is again the G-7 growth locomotive. It grew at a 3.0% annual rate during the fourth quarter and is likely to expand by 2.5-3.0%...
CFA Institute: Emerging Markets Warrant an Overweight Position in Investor Portfolios
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/05/08/emerging-markets-warrant-an-overweight-position-in-investor-portfolios-says-david-hale/
Escaped China activist in US protection-rights group
appeared on swissinfo.com: …But David Hale, an economist based in Chicago and veteran China watcher, said he saw “nothing new in this and (it) will continue so long as China remains an authoritarian...
Interview: Austerity counter-productive in Europe - ABC Lateline Broadcast: 27/04/2012
Australian Broadcasting Corporation Broadcast: 27/04/2012 Reporter: Emma Alberici David Hale is an economic adviser to banks world-wide, and joins Lateline to discuss the apparent failure of austerity measures to save Europe. Interview and Transcript:...
ABC Australian Radio-Interview: Britain in recession... again
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/twt/201204/20120426twt6-brit-recession.mp3 KIM LANDERS: The British economy is officially back in recession and economists say there’s a long way to go before the economy is back on the front foot. The news has added to...
What's Next? Reviewed by Bill Barnhart
What’s Next?: Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy edited by David Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale. Yale University Press, 2011. The dismal science of economics has become even more dubious in recent years because the profession seems to have been...
Scotland Should Choose the Krone
There would be minimal risks for Scotland in pegging its new currency to the Norwegian krone.
One of the questions which Scotland will have to ponder if it regains independence is what to do with its currency. Scottish banks currently print their own banknotes, but they are British pounds subject to control by the Bank of England. They are not truly a...
Blog: L’économie mondiale pourra-t-elle atténuer la récession européenne ?
http://finance.blog.lemonde.fr/2012/01/08/l’economie-mondiale-pourra-t-elle-eviter-la-recession-europeenne/
Print Edition/Online Access: The G20 Cannes Summit 2011
A New Way Forward Published October 2011 What’s Next? by David Hale http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/newsdesk/cannes/index.html
For the US, the Only Way Is Up
[Forecasters] fear that wealth losses in the equity market and the shock to business confidence could overwhelm the traditional factors driving the business cycle.
The turbulence in equity markets has stoked great concern about the outlook for the US and global economies. Many forecasters are slashing estimates of second half growth to 1 per cent. Some even fear there could be a recession. However, there have been steep...
David Hale on WBEZ - As Western markets crash, a new world order is setting in, says Chicago economist
September 15, 2011 By: Worldview The European Union is in crisis, with many debating whether Greece, with its crippling level of debt, should even remain in the EU. In the United States, new figures from the Census Bureau reveal that nearly one in six people was...
Will Fiscal Policy Depress the US Economy in 2012?
There is little doubt that the US will need a prolonged period of fiscal austerity in order to reduce its structural budget deficit.
There is a risk that fiscal policy could significantly retard the growth rate of the US economy next year. Congressional Republicans and the White House are now locked in negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling. The Republicans are demanding large...
Confidence and the Equity Market
The White House and Congress must restore confidence by taking action to reverse the fiscal drag projected in 2012 while offering a credible plan for deficit reduction.
The sharp gyrations in US equity markets have provoked new concerns that the US economy could experience a double dip. There is not a direct correlation between the equity market and the economy. The stock market fell 36% during 1987 and real GDP grew by 4.1%...
Chicago Will Feel Effects of Coming Fiscal Austerity
The persistence of the deficit and the large declines now occurring in federal aid will force the state to keep tight control on spending for another two years.
Following three years of expansionary practices, fiscal policy could significantly retard the already slow growth rate of the U.S. economy next year. Congressional Republicans and the White House are negotiating to raise the federal debt ceiling, with Republicans...
INTERVIEW: Eye on the Economy - CNBC CLOSING BELL
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000031884
Why China's Growth Will Slow
If the structural changes now occurring in wages and the cost of capital dampen profits and investment, they could also gradually reduce China’s potential growth rate.
China is now embarking upon a new five year plan designed to alter the economy’s growth mix and how it interacts with the rest of the world. The government says it wants to focus upon the quality of growth rather than just maximizing it. It wants to reduce the...
Quantitative Easing Could Return - CNBC SQUAWK BOX
David Hale, Chairman and Founder of David Hale Global Economics talks about America’s economic health. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=2033211358
What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy
In their new book, What’s Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy, experts David Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale offer rare insight from a select group of the world’s best thinkers. What’s Next? explores how human decisions – including social...
Economic Recovery: Bullish or Bearish?
Despite upbeat forecasts from economists, the road to recovery remains paved with formidable challenges, including stubbornly high unemployment and weak demand for housing. The stabilization of the financial system contributed to economic recovery in late 2009...
The New Optimism on the US Economy
If employment growth does not revive, the recovery will falter again and require policy makers to keep applying monetary and fiscal stimulus.
There has been a surge of optimism among US forecasters since December. It has been driven by the White House-Congressional compromise on tax policy and evidence of strong retail sales during the Christmas season. The new consensus forecast is calling for 3.5%...
China Is Key to Next Rally in Gold Prices
There is no way to predict the timing of China’s future gold purchases, but there can be little doubt they will create a demand for gold that will dwarf all other factors
The recent gold price rally is the first stage of a multi-year bull market that will drive the gold price to at least $2,000 per ounce by 2015. A mixture of economic factors and innovations in how institutions can purchase the metal have moved prices. But the...
