Research

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Monthly Report-Will European Turbulence Slow US Growth-November 2011- Thumb
17 pages

Europe is headed towards a new recession as US and Japanese growth stabilizes in positive, if uninspiring, territory.

How Eurozone Rebalancing Could Lead to the Euro Unraveling By Mark Zoff-Monthly Report_11-2011- Thumb
1 page

If the periphery decides that deleveraging and disinflationary--or deflationary--conditions is too high a cost to regain competitiveness, they could leave the EMU.

12 minutes

11 minutes

Bulletin-The Eurozone Summit Could Disappoint Investors- Thumb
5 pages

The large number of thorny issues that need to be resolved ensures that the likelihood of a disappointing outcome from the EMU summit is higher than currently thought.

Monthly Report-Indian Summer-October 2011- Thumb
15 pages

The US will avoid a new recession, but Europe will not be so lucky.

Monthly Report-A Crisis of Confidence- Thumb
20 pages

Uncertainty is running rampant across almost every region of the world during the third quarter.

Will Ben Bernanke's Jackson Hole Speech Disappoint the Financial Markets?- Thumb
3 pages

Despite hopes for an announcement of a new round of quantitative easing, Ben Bernanke is unlikely to make such an announcement at the upcoming Jackson Hole conference.

Monthly Report-Will the Falling Stock Market Produce a US Recession- Thumb
39 pages

The US, China, and Japan are growing swiftly while turbulence emerges in Europe.

Could the Debt Ceiling Negotiations Cause a Recession?- Thumb
7 pages

The intractability of both Republicans and Democrats on the fiscal cliff is increasing the likelihood of an impasse that could lead to a drop in output in the US economy.

Monthly Report-Summer_Doldrums-07-18-11- Thumb
41 pages

Government policies are increasing the risk level across most major economies.

Did Small Business Depress the June Employment Report- Thumb
6 pages

Small businesses and state and local governments continue to drag down job growth in mid-2011.

2011_Bulletins_Bulletin-Will Fiscal Policy Depress the US Economy in 2012- Thumb
4 pages

The US economy will be forced to endure the most severe fiscal consolidation in six decades in 2012 if Congress does not take action to avert the looming crisis.

Monthly Report-Could There Be a Double Dip in the US - Thumb 1
44 pages

Lull in US growth should prove temporary.

The Outlook for the Canadian Economy.pdf- Thumb
9 pages

Canada's outperformance of the US economy during the past three years is owed in large part to its avoidance of the excesses that plagued the US in the pre-GFC era.