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17 pages

Europe is headed towards a new recession as US and Japanese growth stabilizes in positive, if uninspiring, territory.

1 page

If the periphery decides that deleveraging and disinflationary--or deflationary--conditions is too high a cost to regain competitiveness, they could leave the EMU.

12 minutes

11 minutes

5 pages

The large number of thorny issues that need to be resolved ensures that the likelihood of a disappointing outcome from the EMU summit is higher than currently thought.

15 pages

The US will avoid a new recession, but Europe will not be so lucky.

20 pages

Uncertainty is running rampant across almost every region of the world during the third quarter.

3 pages

Despite hopes for an announcement of a new round of quantitative easing, Ben Bernanke is unlikely to make such an announcement at the upcoming Jackson Hole conference.

39 pages

The US, China, and Japan are growing swiftly while turbulence emerges in Europe.

7 pages

The intractability of both Republicans and Democrats on the fiscal cliff is increasing the likelihood of an impasse that could lead to a drop in output in the US economy.

41 pages

Government policies are increasing the risk level across most major economies.

6 pages

Small businesses and state and local governments continue to drag down job growth in mid-2011.

4 pages

The US economy will be forced to endure the most severe fiscal consolidation in six decades in 2012 if Congress does not take action to avert the looming crisis.

44 pages

Lull in US growth should prove temporary.

9 pages

Canada's outperformance of the US economy during the past three years is owed in large part to its avoidance of the excesses that plagued the US in the pre-GFC era.