Bulletins

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While the Fed's decision to begin tapering in December drew the most media attention, the large turnover on the FOMC will have large policy ramifications going forward.

5 pages

Recent positive economic data releases have materially increased the likelihood that the Fed will start tapering its quantitative easing program in December.

7 pages

If the Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on a debt ceiling deal, a recession is a more likely outcome than a default in the near term.

2 pages

Following a series of disappointing economic reports, the most recent employment report allayed fears that the moderate recovery in the US economy was faltering.

3 pages

Barrack Obama's reelection will ensure that many of his first term initiatives will persist and that the Fed's QE policies will continue unabated.

5 pages

Corporate profit growth in 2012 will continue to be positive, but changes to fiscal policy loom as a major risk.

5 pages

The large number of thorny issues that need to be resolved ensures that the likelihood of a disappointing outcome from the EMU summit is higher than currently thought.

3 pages

Despite hopes for an announcement of a new round of quantitative easing, Ben Bernanke is unlikely to make such an announcement at the upcoming Jackson Hole conference.

7 pages

The intractability of both Republicans and Democrats on the fiscal cliff is increasing the likelihood of an impasse that could lead to a drop in output in the US economy.

6 pages

Small businesses and state and local governments continue to drag down job growth in mid-2011.